JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a Major Category 3 hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Rafael has now downgraded to a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 100 mph as it moves to the NW at 9 mph.
A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.
As Rafael crosses Cuba and heads into the Gulf of Mexico, the current forecast track continues to bring the storm west where it will interact with higher wind shear and eventually cooler waters. This will likely weaken the storm in the long run. There is still uncertainty about where it could head for on the Gulf Coast, how strong it could be at landfall, or if it dissipates out over the Gulf. With a passing front to the north expect an increase in rainfall due to moisture being stretched north along the front increasing showers along the Gulf Coast. This will not be direct impacts from the storm but more so indirect with the increase in moisture.
Swells generated by Rafael will spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
As for the First Coast, it will still bring us some periods of heavy rain tonight and Thursday. There is an isolated risk of localized flooding, particularly in areas with poor drainage and in southeast Georgia, but it now looks like the heaviest rain will fall to our north. Get your local forecast here.
With the storm reaching Cat 3 prior to landfall Cuba this makes Rafael only the 6th Major (Cat 3+) hurricane on record in the month of November. Three of those 6 storms have taken place since 2020.
Behind Hurricane Rafael, an area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. Slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week, but the National Hurricane Center is holding it at a low chance of formation in the next 7 days.
It has been an extremely active season with the number of tropical systems well above average.
A friendly reminder that with the time chance, NHC advisories occur an hour earlier.
The peak of hurricane season was Sept. 10. It was the 60th anniversary of Hurricane Dora, the last hurricane to make landfall in Jacksonville.
The end of hurricane season is Nov. 30.
