AUSTIN, Texas — Texas is going to get hotter and drier over the next 12 years, according to a new climatology report from researchers at Texas A&M University.
The new report, published by A&M's Office of the Texas State Climatologist, analyzed historic observations of temperature, precipitation and extreme weather in Texas through last year. Then, looking at that data, researchers identified ongoing and likely future trends out to the year 2036 – the year Texas turns 200 – and beyond.
Here's a look at some of the main takeaways from the report.
Hotter temperatures, more wildfires
The report states that the average annual surface temperature in Texas in 2036 is expected to be 3 degrees warmer than the 1950-1999 average and 1.8 degrees warmer than the 1991-2020 average. This would make a typical year around 2036 warmer than all but the warmest year experienced in Texas from 1895-2020.
In that same vein, the number of 100-degree days is expected to quadruple by 2036 compared to the 1970s and 1980s, with more 100-degree days expected in cities. The report found that extreme monthly summertime temperature trends imply an increase of about 2 degrees over the past 50 years.
The coolest days of the summer are also expected to continue getting warmer.
What do these trends indicate for future wildfire seasons? Nothing good. The report said overall, the area of the state commonly impacted by wildfires may expand eastward. At the same time, higher temperatures will likely allow very dry conditions to develop earlier in the year, extending both the spring and summer wildfire seasons.
Rainfall and flooding
Researchers anticipate an additional increase of about 10% in expected extreme rainfall intensity in 2036 compared to 2001-2020 and an overall increase of over 20% compared to 1950-1999. However, researchers also noted that, "Because of all the factors at play, it is impossible to make quantitative statewide projections of drought trends."
What about flooding?
The report found that river flooding in Texas is not projected to have any substantial change through 2036. They also noted:
"Assuming that the flooding trends in small, rapidly responding urban basins are driven climatologically by rainfall intensity, the change in frequency of extreme rainfall would translate directly to a change in the expected frequency of urban flooding: over 100% more in 2036 relative to climatological expectations for 1950-1999 and over 50% more relative to 2000-2018."
Snowfall frequency and intensity
Anticipated increasing temperatures also apply to the winter. Researchers found that extreme monthly wintertime temperatures are expected to continue to warm at an even faster rate. That means typical wintertime extremes by 2036 are expected to be milder than most of the winter extremes in the state's historic record.
What about snow? Researchers reported that because the determining factor for snowfall in northwest Texas is typically air temperature, "a reasonable expectation is that snowfall frequency and intensity will decrease in the future, somewhat reducing the snow hazard."
As for sleet, researchers noted that an expectation of a decline in freezing rain is tentative and "the magnitude of such a decline is as yet unknown."
Severe thunderstorms, tornados and hurricanes
The report states that due to complex trends and partially contradictory information between models and observations, researchers aren't confident in any ongoing trend when it comes to the frequency and severity of severe thunderstorms.
As for tornados, the most robust trend is a tendency of more tornadoes in large outbreaks, "but the factors apparently driving that trend are not projected to continue." Warmer temperatures will likely lead to less hail overall, particularly during the summer, but "increases in available thunderstorm energy may lead to an increase of the risk of very large hail earlier in springtime."
For hurricanes, the report states that places along the Texas coast with the largest rate of relative sea level rise may have a doubled storm surge risk by 2050 compared to the risk at the beginning of the 20th century, simply because of the relative sea level rise itself.
Dig further into the data by taking a look at the full report.