WACO, Texas — Fresh off conference-opening wins, two of the 15 best defenses in the country will clash Tuesday night on the South Plains.
No. 4 Baylor (11-1 overall, 1-0 Big 12) visits No. 22 Texas Tech (10-3, 1-0) in a game which could see the first team to 50 points win. This game tips off at 8 p.m. inside United Supermarkets Arena.
The Bears jumped two spots in the AP poll after its Big 12-opening win over Texas, 59-44, Saturday. The Red Raiders stayed put after thrashing Oklahoma State, 85-50, Saturday morning.
However, in Ken Pomeroy's advanced analytics, Baylor checks in at No. 10 overall with TTU's ranking mirroring its AP ranking.
First, looking at Baylor, the Bears are making a living on defense and rebounding. However, unlike most years when coach Scott Drew's teams are known for zone defense, the Bears have been able to play man-to-man, as well.
"We don't have the size and length we've had," Drew said Monday. "And we're playing more guards. So, that leads to a defense more pressure-oriented."
Against the Longhorns, Baylor played mostly man defense, stifling Texas to a mere 34.6% shooting. The Horns' 44 points is their lowest scoring output of the Shaka Smart era (since 2015).
Those types of defensive numbers are even more impressive when you take into account that Baylor forced 11 Texas turnovers, only five of which were steals. Because of that, none of the nine players who played against Texas registered negative +/- ratings for player efficiency (Flo Thamba and Davion Mitchell were both even, posting 0's).
According to KenPom, the Bears are ninth in adjusted defense, which ranks third in the Big 12 (Kansas is 2nd, West Virginia is 4th) through Monday's games.
But there is cause for concern, as Baylor struggled to shoot Saturday, finishing 31.3% on 64 shots from the floor.
Texas Tech ranks 13th in adjusted defense and is known for its intense, physical defense under reigning AP coach of the year Chris Beard.
"They try to make you do what they want you to do and not allow you to get in the paint," sophomore Baylor guard Jared Butler said. "They take you out of your rhythm and not let you try to run your offense."
According to KenPom, the Red Raiders are Top-60 in defensive effective field goal percentage (which adds weight for made 3-pointers), at 45.5%, which is good. For comparison, Baylor checks in at 43.0% in the same metric, ranking 15th.
The Red Raider defense has allowed an average of 62.2 points per game, only having allowed more than their average four times in 13 games. In fact, Saturday's Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State was Tech's second best defensive performance, by points allowed.
However, as notorious as Tech's defense is, Baylor's has it edged. The Bears have allowed just 58.9 points per game, but more than the average six times in 12 games.
Still, KenPom projects Texas Tech to win 66-64 on Tuesday.
Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has Tech a three-point favorite, with the over/under set at 129.5.
6 News sports team picks:
- Nick: Baylor by 5
- Kurtis: Baylor by 2
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