IOWA, USA — The Jasons are braving blizzard conditions in Iowa so Texans can monitor the caucuses that officially kick off the 2024 election season and the presidential nominating process from the “warmth” of their own homes.
You think it’s cold here in North Texas?
While blizzard conditions are expected to end 36-48 hours before the Iowa caucuses begin, the state will still suffer through one of the longest periods of below-zero temperatures in decades.
While Iowans are used to weather like that, you still have to physically be present at a caucus location to have your vote counted, so the snow and dangerous temperatures could keep folks away.
“And so the candidates, I think there are Republican party officials who worried about what this all means for turnout,” political expert Averi Harper told us on Y’all-itics.
Averi Harper is the Deputy Political Director for ABC News.
She eats and sleeps all things politics, and she was actually in Iowa for both winter storms this week leading up to the Iowa caucuses (yes, there were two weather events).
Polling in Iowa shows former President Donald Trump with a substantial lead, with former South Carolina Governor Nicki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a virtual tie for second place.
“When you look at our 538 partners, and you look at the average of polls that they have, we’ve seen Nicki Haley overtake Ron DeSantis in terms of polls here in Iowa. Still, both of them very far behind former President Trump,” Harper explained. “I think there’s a lot of Iowans who are out there who still really support former President Trump. But both of them are in this sort of race for second place.”
The question is if the winter weather will hurt one Republican candidate more than another.
Haley was forced to cancel events this week, instead choosing to hold tele-town halls with Iowans.
“Instead of being face-to-face with those voters, she is trying to make that closing argument via Zoom and that’s a difficult thing to do, to try and connect with folks and try to get those last minute votes without being in person,” observed Harper.
DeSantis still managed to hold one event on Friday that was well attended, but he too was forced to cancel other events.
In terms of polling, the Florida Governor has lost significant ground, allowing Haley to not only catch him, but pass him in some polls.
And that is bad news for the Florida Republican.
He’s spent a lot of time, money and effort in Iowa, traveling to all 99 counties in the state. He also has establishment support from Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and evangelical leaders in the state.
DeSantis is also already trailing Trump and Haley in polls in New Hampshire, where the campaigns head next.
Since he’s all-in for Iowa, if DeSantis finishes third there, Harper says he could be done.
“It’s totally difficult for him. And I think also when you think about donor support, right, the folks who are going to be powering his campaign through, lack of confidence could hamper any campaign efforts going forward,” she said.
On the flip side, Haley has been building momentum.
So, is there any scenario where she could become the Republican nominee if she finishes second in Iowa?
“Her campaign would argue even if she finishes in third place, right, that she is also positioned for a bounce going into New Hampshire. I think also what Nicki Haley has done is setting very low expectations, or no expectations at all when it comes to her performance here in Iowa,” Harper told the Jasons. “If she comes in third place behind Ron DeSantis, she’s performing at expectations. There were no expectations that she was going to come in in second place. If she overperforms, if she beats Ron DeSantis, that could give her a bump.”
Harper and the Jasons also discuss former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s exit from the race and to whom his supporters might migrate. And they explain why the results in Iowa could mean Texans won’t have many choices during the March 5 primary. Listen to the entire episode to learn more. Cheers!
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