AUSTIN, Texas —
An upcoming study shows that the state's weather pattern is trending toward worsening extremes.
The final version of the “Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas” is expected to be released in early 2024.
Dr. John-Nielson-Gammon is the state’s climatologist at Texas A&M University.
The KVUE Defenders spoke with Nielson-Gammon in November of 2022 about how extreme weather affects water supplies.
He and a team analyzed decades of weather records to come up with climate predictions. He said we should expect hotter days and more intense severe weather in the future. That means the number of triple-digit days is expected to trend upward.
The research found that the average number of 100-degree-plus days has tripled since the 1970s.
His research showed our increasingly hot summers were followed by milder winters.
The study also revealed how extreme rainfall is expected to worsen, so much so that urban flooding is projected to increase by 30% to 50%.
Public policy think tank Texas 2036 partnered with Nielson-Gammon in 2021 for the original study. Senior policy advisor Jeremy Mazur said the renewed partnership for 2023's update pointed to what they suspected.
"There are two key points to look at. First, we had record-high temperatures across the state in 2023. On top of that, we also had record-high low temperatures across the state in 2023, which means if you're looking for some relief from the heat at night, it just wasn't there. It was warmer than normal," Mazur said.