TEMPLE, Texas — There's a newly-released Pikachu card that's sending shockwaves through the Pokémon Trading Card Game (TCG) community as its value surges to unprecedented heights.
The Special Illustration Rare (SIR) Pikachu ex card, which can be attained in the brand new "Surging Sparks" set that just released on Nov. 8, has skyrocketed to being valued at $600, as of Nov. 13, according to TCG Player, a leading marketplace for trading card games.
Prior to the set's release, the card was valued at $315, per TCG Player.
Why is this card worth so much?
For Pokémon card enthusiasts and investors like Tucker Nowak -- popularly known as "PokeBeard" on YouTube where he provides Pokémon card market advice to over 133,000 subscribers daily -- this 90% increase in value is unheard of for a new, "modern" card.
"My initial thought of the Pikachu [ex] was [market] manipulation," Nowak said.
Nowak explained how usually, the highest price of a new card tends to be before a set's release. After, most prices drop dramatically in a matter of days. However, that hasn't been the case for the current era of Pokémon, he said.
"The Scarlet and Violet era has had one of the most manipulated markets I have ever seen," he shared. "Tons of buyouts and shill bidding, and when that happens, people think it's all real and start to panic and don't want to miss out on the card, and they start to buy."
In fact, collectors have recently purchased copies of the Pikachu ex card for around $700 for an ungraded copy and $3,400 for a graded one that scored a "PSA 10," according to eBay's recently sold listings as of Nov. 13.
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Nowak drew comparisons to another special illustration rare, a Greninja ex, that was released in the set "Twilight Masquerade" this past May.
"... the Greninja was $100 on release," Nowak said. "Then a week later, someone bought every copy, then it was $150. It happened again, then it was $200."
According to TCG Player, that card is now valued at around $318.
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Additionally, many highly coveted cards within the Pokémon TCG community see price increases because of artwork, gameplay and "pull rates," or the odds of pulling a specific card.
"We then found out the Greninja has some of the toughest pull rates in the Scarlet and Violet era, we're talking about 1,000 packs to pull the Greninja," Nowak said. "So with it hyped up, the tougher pull rates, and being Greninja (2020's most popular Pokémon), people started going crazy for it."
Nowak said the Pikachu card has similar pull rates.
According to TCG Player, it would take an average of 960 packs ($4,800) to attain the SIR Pikachu ex. That's a pull rate of .001 percent.
Will this card's value gain or drop?
If you are a Pokémon card collector and have your eyes on this card, Nowak believes you should err on the side of caution.
"With how crazy the market is, there is a very small chance it does keep climbing and doesn't come back down to the prices we are seeing today... That's why a ton of people get nervous when the market gets so crazy because it's so unpredictable."
Because the market is volatile, he said it's difficult to determine which direction the card value's growth will go.
"It is a Pikachu and almost everybody loves Pikachu, and this is the first Pikachu we have gotten with tough pull rates since 'Vivid Voltage,'" he explained.
Raw copies of the Pikachu card Nowak mentioned, a Pikachu VMAX rainbow card, sold for over $460 in January 2021, according to Price Charting, another popular website used among collectors. Today, the card is now valued at roughly $100.
"It is one of the examples people like to use on why Pikachus don't hold value very good," Nowak said.
Nowak also believes the card's value could decline when future card sets come out, especially those that are highly anticipated.
"So if you're someone who is wanting this card right away, I would probably recommend holding off, especially with all the amazing upcoming sets," he shared. "... I do think it will always be a pretty expensive card, but will lose some momentum when 'Prismatic Evolutions' and Team Rocket come out."
Those two sets are expected to be released next year.